I do not have any special access to information, it’s my wild guess, has no base to objectively support my own conclusion, that death or no-death, Governments world over, will be compelled to withdraw the current lock-down. Simple reason is to avoid economic breakdown, and the special age group of people affected.
Already, economic disaster on the way, both within the country and the world without. Actually, today’s is the globalised world. If a ripple is raised in one corner of the world, is bound to reach to other corner. Experts say that if it allowed to continue for 5/6 months, economic recession is definitely on the way, something like the great depression of 1930 is in the offing. While writing this article, breaking news popping up in the TV screen, that the finance minister of Germany, has committed suicide. This is unfortunate no doubt, but this sums up the economic disaster we are facing……. all around people are locked up; trains, buses, autos not moving, offices are closed; hawkers, venders do not sell their goods; vegetable markets, markets of daily consumer requirements are closed. In a word, economic and social life in the country has come to a grinding halt.
Initially there was a lock down for one day, then for three weeks till 14.4.20, all because people to people contagion can be contained. But as I think it is almost impossible to check transmission of virus in this way, in a country of 135 crores people, with the kind of existing social and economic behaviour that we have. Day labourers, or men working in unorganised workers, are not able to earn their livelihood, passing days in anxieties and worries in their home, how long they will hold?. On TV screen I can see thousands of migrant workers are returning to their home in Bihar, UP, Orissa, Bengal, from Kerala, Delhi and Mumbai. Thus they will have to walk hundreds of miles, one has collapsed and died on the way till now.
Thus, people will die due to continuous spread of contagion due to corona. People will die due to the economic disaster arising out of lock down. I fear in countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India spread of contagion of corona, is not possible, unless until 60/70 percent of people are already affected. In the meantime, damage to economy, and livelihood of people will continue to worsen. Recession will come down, now people will die not because of corona, but having no food, shelter, and medical treatment. Interest rates of all savings has just begun to come down, other measures will follow..
Even before corona, economic growth was coming down, now the corona effect is added to it. If present lock down is allowed to continue, much more damage to employment, livelihood, production will be done; availability of goods for public consumption will be scarce. Famine like situation will arise, social unrest and riot may follow. Altogether, a havoc will be created……To stop the country from further damage lock down requires to be withdrawn, all economic activity will be restored on a war footing, although corona is certain to continue to take more and more toll of death.
Moreover, some of those who matter, may start thinking in a new line, that it is the economically non-productive people are dying , who are mostly aged 60/65/70 above, who are living on pension or dependent on their children, mostly afflicted with diseases, have no economic contribution of their own, to the society. Thus, they are not important. Even otherwise, but for improved healthcare of modern days, they would have cleared the deck long back. This thought may not be wholly wrong; if we look at the current death rate, we shall see that death rate has severely reduced in spite of war, heart diseases, cancer, terrorism etc etc . Moreover, younger people in all ages have aversion for older people…
Whatever, one thing is certain that lock down cannot continue any more.